Pig prices continue to rise, sing negative pig prices “experts” why face?Because they missed two things

2022-05-02 0 By

Experts on pig prices have been slapped in the face for failing to notice two things, as the lunar New Year holiday draws to a close.Industry experts are generally pessimistic about pig prices after the Spring Festival. Their reasons are simple. One is that pork consumption will be affected by the post-Spring Festival effect, which will lead to a sharp drop in consumption.Secondly, the pigs released in February and March should normally be born in August and September of the previous year. According to the official statistics, the number of breeding sows at that time is in excess state. In addition, the temperature is appropriate, and the survival rate of piglets is high, the number of pigs available for release in the first quarter of 2022 is also high.The demand at the consumer end is declining, the supply at the supply end is high, and the supply and demand relationship of live pigs is in the state of oversupply, so the pig price is bound to decline.To our surprise, after the Spring Festival, the pig price did not decline as predicted by experts. Instead, sesame seeds rose. On February 6th, the pig price increased by 0.13 yuan compared with the previous day, with the external three yuan rising to 14.25 yuan and the internal three yuan to 13.89 yuan.The local mixed pig went up to 13.46 yuan.Specific to the regional prices rise and fall, guizhou, sichuan, gansu, shaanxi, heilongjiang, jilin, liaoning, tianjin, Beijing, hainan, guangxi, guangdong, henan, jiangxi, zhejiang, anhui and Shanghai areas showed rising trend, shandong, jiangsu, hubei, hebei, and yunnan remain stable, the rest of the fujian, hunan, shanxi, and chongqing is a narrow down.After the ups and downs of recent days, at this stage, the pig price in east China has risen to 7-7.8 yuan, central China to adjust to 7-7.4 yuan, north China to 6.8-7.5 yuan, South China to 7.2-8.5 yuan, northeast China to 6.2-6.9 yuan, southwest China to adjust to 6.4-7.3 yuan.The pig price in each region is basically maintained at about 7 yuan, with the high-priced areas reaching 7.5 yuan and the low-priced areas hovering around 6.5 yuan.Experts are supposed to be relatively accurate in their forecasts of pig prices, as they have the latest data on pig production and consumption in China. But why have they been slapped in the face so often from the first half of 2021?I think it’s mainly because they missed two things.First, consumers’ consumption concept has changed According to previous experience, pork consumption in the New Year will indeed decline a lot compared with the year before, but experts have ignored one point, that is, consumers’ consumption concept has changed.In the past, everyone used to prepare enough goods before the Spring Festival, fresh meat, frozen meat, bacon, sausage a lot of, can say that one or two months after the year do not need to buy meat.But now, most consumers only prepare food during the Spring Festival, because people are more accustomed to eating fresh food, which to a large extent maintains pork consumption after the Spring Festival.In addition, before the Spring Festival this year, many regions of the disease have appeared unstable situation, people are local Spring Festival, reduce the link of visiting relatives, the amount of pork stockpiled by families is even less.The second point, the pig pig farmers years ago sell almost the data calculated according to the sow breeding stock, in the first quarter for porcine high is not false, but experts is blind to the point, that is pig would choose in years ago sold the pigs can sell, especially the Spring Festival before prices not ideal, falling, let farmers’ confidence after prices abate,In addition, this winter in many places disease aggravation, pig farmers worry about breeding risks, a variety of factors under the influence of the combination of pig farmers in the year before the enthusiasm to sell pigs increased.This overdraws the number of pigs available for market after the festival, making it more difficult for slaughterers to collect pigs after the festival, and they have to raise the price of pigs.