Why does China’s birth population continue to decline?Here comes the definitive analysis

2022-06-09 0 By

The National Health Commission (NHC) recently held a press conference on the progress, experience and practices in implementing the Decision of the CPC Central Committee and The State Council on Optimizing family Planning Policies for Long-term Balanced Population Development.At the meeting, Yang Jinrui, deputy director of the NHC’s population and Family department, said that from the current situation, maternity leave has been extended by 30 to 90 days, and provisions on the development of universal preferential childcare services and the protection of family rights and interests have been added.In June 2021, the CPC Central Committee and The State Council issued the Decision to implement the three-child policy and supporting measures.Over the past six months and more, all localities and departments have taken active actions to improve the leadership mechanism, introduce supportive measures, and promote the implementation of the task of optimizing the family planning policy. Positive progress has been made in relevant work, and some good experience and practices have been formed.At the meeting, Yang Jinrui introduced: First, the NHC will remove restrictive measures such as social maintenance fees, and work with relevant departments to clean up administrative regulations, rules and normative documents.Second, various government departments have actively introduced a series of supporting measures, including the “double reduction” in education, including special individual income tax deductions for care services for infants and children under the age of three, three-child maternity insurance benefits, universal preferential childcare services, pre-natal and post-natal care services, and raising subsidies for special families.Third, local governments organized and implemented the three-child policy in accordance with the law and actively introduced supporting measures.At present, 25 provinces have completed the revision of regulations, and some provinces have formulated implementation plans.”Zhejiang will build a child-care friendly society as a major reform measures into the construction of common prosperity demonstration zone, Suzhou planned financial investment of 400 million yuan to promote the development of universal care, Panzhihua city to improve the birth service system, explore the granting of birth allowances, and so on.Yang jinrui said.Yang jinrui said that on the whole, people from all walks of life have paid extensive attention to the optimization of fertility policy, the three-child policy and supporting measures have been implemented smoothly, and a child-friendly social environment is gradually forming.Comprehensive influence of multiple factors leads to continuous decline of birth population Yang Jinrui analyzed that the continuous decline of birth population is the result of comprehensive influence of multiple factors.There are specific: first, the scale of women of childbearing age, especially in their fertile period, has declined.During the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020), the number of women aged 20-34 in their fertile years will decrease by 3.4 million annually, 4.73 million fewer in 2021 than in 2020.This is an important factor driving down the number of births.Second, young people’s views on marriage and childbearing have changed significantly.At present, the post-90s and post-00s are the new marriage and childbearing subjects. Most of them grow up and work in cities and towns. They have received more years of education and face greater pressure from employment competition.Delaying marriage increases the likelihood that women will remain unmarried for life, further depressing fertility levels.At the same time, the desire to have children continues to decline. The average number of children that women of childbearing age intend to have was 1.76 in 2017, 1.73 in 2019, and 1.64 in 2021.Third, the high cost of fertility education aggravates fertility concerns.With the economic and social development, the cost of childbearing education under the influence of housing, education, employment and other factors remains high, which increases the concerns of young people about childbearing.Related supporting policies are not well connected, and public services such as childcare are not sound, making many young people hesitant and discouraged to have children.”COVID-19 has also had an impact on marriage and childbearing arrangements for some people.”Yang Jinrui said.”The number of births in China has been declining in recent years, which is mainly influenced by multiple factors including the total number of women of childbearing age, the age structure of women of childbearing age and the fertility rate.””Said Song Jian, deputy director of the Population and Development Research Center at Renmin University of China.Song jian analyzed that the number of women of childbearing age depends on the size of birth cohort in the past. The birth population in China from 1962 to 1975 and 1981 to 1997 both exceeded 20 million. Under the condition of slow change of death level, the number of women of childbearing age will be affected by the birth cohort of different sizes.In the future, the high-birth cohort from 1981 to 1997 will still be the main body of women of childbearing age in China, but the number of women of childbearing age will decrease subsequently, which will lead to a continuous decline in the total number of women of childbearing age and an aging internal age structure. In particular, the scale of women of childbearing age at the age of 20-34 will decrease significantly before 2030.This will put downward pressure on the number of births.Song said China’s fertility rate has also fallen rapidly in recent years, especially as the decline in the total fertility rate of one child has offset the rise in the total fertility rate of two children, which is the result of a combination of factors such as people’s low desire to have children, delayed marriage and the impact of COVID-19.”The key to slowing the decline in births in the future is whether fertility rates can rise.”Song said it is necessary to speed up the construction of a policy system to support birth, ease the pressure on the masses, promote age-appropriate marriage and childbearing, and boost fertility.Disclaimer: The above content is transferred from other media, the relevant information is only for the purpose of conveying more information, does not represent the views of this website, nor does it mean that this website agrees with its views or confirms the authenticity of the content.If the manuscript copyright units or individuals do not want to be published in this network, you can contact this network, this network can be immediately removed according to the situation.